Iranian Nuclear Fallout

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a report today detailing the progress Iran has made in its nuclear weapons program. Key findings include the development and testing of an implosion device, a build-up in the previously investigated Parchin base, and significant evidence of weapons-grade uranium enrichment.

Why are these new revelations relevant to regional interests, and the interests of the US and UK? For the region, Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons increases the possibility of nuclear proliferation, especially to volatile countries such as Syria and Lebanon. Acquiring nuclear weapons also makes Iran the clear hegemonic regional power with the capacity to clear other countries quite explicitly off the map. Most importantly, a nuclear Iran would draw neighbors like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, etc. into a de-stabilizing arms race.

For the US, the UK, and the international community, a nuclear Iran would frustrate the desire for stability and a balance of power in the region. This instability naturally means dramatic fluctuations in oil and gas prices that are detrimental to consumers as well as producers. Nuclear weapons give Iran a significant leverage in talks aimed at lifting sanctions. Finally, Iran has had long-standing ties to various anti-American groups who would appreciate getting their hands on radiological material for dirty bombs.

But is there anything the international community can do about Iran’s nuclear program? In a process increasingly familiar to the Obama administration, the US supplemented the IAEA with intelligence, then waited until the report was released before pushing today for further sanctions. However, because Iran is supported by Russia and China, it has not yet been stymied by Western sanctions. There always exists the possibility of cyber-warfare, a là STUXNET, but the Iranian program has developed to a stage where simply shutting down computer systems is not enough to stop it.

A military strike, much like the Israeli bombing of Osirak in Iraq in 1981, may temporarily weaken the nuclear weapons program, but a strike could also convince the Iranian political elite and Iranian citizens that they should pursue a more secretive, resilient nuclear program to protect themselves from the West.

That leaves us with the most realistic outcome of this report: nothing will happeniran. Nuclear weapons technology is over sixty years old, and ballistic missile technology is fairly accessible. We now live in a world where it is impossible to stop any sufficiently committed country from developing a weapons program. Therefore the best response would be to engage in dialogue along the lines of theTurkey-Brazil-Iran nuclear fuel swap deal agreed upon in the Spring of 2010. But for such a solution to work would require a rejection of a sanctions-only hardline approach to Iran and a development of trust in Iran that, after today’s report, it no longer has.

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